the cornucopian thesis

Open Education Sociology Dictionary

cornucopian theory

Table of Contents

Definition of Cornucopian Theory

( noun ) Theory asserting environmental problems caused by a growing global population will be solved by human ingenuity and technological innovation .

Example of Cornucopian Theory

• According to the theory , technological advancements in farming will keep up with population growth.

Cornucopian Theory Pronunciation

Pronunciation Usage Guide

Syllabification : cor·nu·co·pi·an the·o·ry

Audio Pronunciation

• Plural:  cornucopian theories

Additional Information

• Word origin of “cornucopia” and “theory” – Online Etymology Dictionary: etymonline.com

Related Terms

• globalization

Works Consulted

Griffiths, Heather, Nathan Keirns, Eric Strayer, Susan Cody-Rydzewski, Gail Scaramuzzo, Tommy Sadler, Sally Vyain, Jeff Bry, Faye Jones. 2016. Introduction to Sociology 2e . Houston, TX: OpenStax.

Merriam-Webster. (N.d.) Merriam-Webster Dictionary . ( http://www.merriam-webster.com/ ).

Oxford University Press. (N.d.) Oxford Dictionaries . ( https://www.oxforddictionaries.com/ ).

Wikipedia contributors. (N.d.) Wiktionary, The Free Dictionary . Wikimedia Foundation. ( http://en.wiktionary.org ).

Cite the Definition of Cornucopian Theory

ASA – American Sociological Association (5th edition)

Bell, Kenton, ed. 2013. “cornucopian theory.” In Open Education Sociology Dictionary . Retrieved November 4, 2023 ( https://sociologydictionary.org/cornucopian-theory/ ).

APA – American Psychological Association (6th edition)

cornucopian theory. (2013). In K. Bell (Ed.), Open education sociology dictionary . Retrieved from https://sociologydictionary.org/cornucopian-theory/

Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date – Chicago Manual of Style (16th edition)

Bell, Kenton, ed. 2013. “cornucopian theory.” In Open Education Sociology Dictionary . Accessed November 4, 2023. https://sociologydictionary.org/cornucopian-theory/ .

MLA – Modern Language Association (7th edition)

“cornucopian theory.” Open Education Sociology Dictionary . Ed. Kenton Bell. 2013. Web. 4 Nov. 2023. < https://sociologydictionary.org/cornucopian-theory/ >.

Can Earth's and Society's Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People?: Summary of a Workshop (2014)

Chapter: 2 the human-earth system.

The Human-Earth System

T he opening session of the workshop was chaired by William Rouse (Stevens Institute of Technology and the chair of the workshop steering committee). B.L. Turner II (Arizona State University and steering committee member) and Rouse gave presentations during this session, followed by discussion with the participants.

UNDERSTANDING POPULATION IN HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIPS: SCIENCE SHAPED BY WORLD VIEWS OR EVIDENCE?

B.L. Turner II Gilbert F. White Professor of Environment and Society, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University

B.L. Turner II began his presentation by explaining that he would address the history of how population and carrying capacity have been applied to impacts on the Earth system and human well-being. He pointed out that there is little debate over the data and empirical evidence, especially in regard to population and environmental change; the debate revolves around the interpretation of those data. Interpretations, he said, say as much, if not more, about the world views of the interpreter as they do about the data and analytics.

Turner described three foundational models of the human-envi-

ronment relationship during the course of his presentation—Malthus, Boserup, and Geertz—as well as two contemporary viewpoints—Cassandra and Cornucopia—linked to them. (See Box 2-1 for a description of each model and viewpoint.) He began with the model of Malthus. Thomas Malthus (1798) attempted to explicate the repercussions of the population growth of cities resulting from a huge influx of rural peasants in the late 18th century in the United Kingdom and focused on how this rapid urban growth could lead to negative outcomes (crises) for society at large. He said that there would be discrepancies between the growth rates of the population and of food supply sufficiently large to lead to a crisis, thereby inferring that technology is outside the demand-production system. While a Malthusian crisis is hypothetically possible, Turner stated that it is difficult to find in the historical evidence a “true” Malthusian

BOX 2-1 Models and Viewpoints of Human-Environment Interactions

Malthus Model. Thomas Malthus postulated that population growth, when unchecked, will surpass the food ceiling and generate a negative impact on the human-environment relationship, i.e., demand leads to crisis (Malthus, 1798).

Boserup Model. Ester Boserup stated that population increase, and the pressures that result from it, will increase the food ceiling; i.e., demand stimulates growth (Boserup, 1965).

Geertz Model. Clifford Geertz postulated the theory of agricultural involution in which a unit of labor (input) yielded a unit of production, a case of stagnation in which the population is fed but surpluses are absent (Geertz, 1963).

Cassandra (also referred to as neo-Malthusian). The Cassandra viewpoint is concerned about stresses from human demands placed on environment and resources over the long run. The Cassandra model accounts for all factors generating demand, not just population; it includes such drivers as affluence and entitlements (Dasgupta and Ehrlich, 2013; Ehrlich and Holdren, 1988). Most global indicators signal major declines in the states and function of the Earth system.

Cornucopia (also referred to as Technology Fix or Pollyanna). The Cornucopian viewpoint states that increases in population (demand) lead to technological innovation and substitution. This in turn leads to an increase in access to and decline in relative price of materials (Simon, 1988). Almost all indicators of human well-being have increased, but there is some recognition of the negative consequences on the environment.

BOX 2-2 What Is Carrying Capacity?

In ecology, carrying capacity is the maximum number of individuals of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities available. In population biology, carrying capacity is defined as the environment’s maximal load.

Carrying capacity in regard to human beings refers to the maximum population size that the use of environment can sustain indefinitely while providing an appropriate supply of food, water, habitat, and other natural resources; it also encompasses many additional factors, such as governance, technology, and knowledge systems.

SOURCE: Adapted from presentation by B.L. Turner II.

crisis. Constraints on food production may be one potential factor that could escalate a crisis (i.e., famine), but access to food (i.e., entitlements) proves to be more robust in explaining famine and other crises. Turner noted that W.A. Dando (1980) put forward the idea that humans induced food shortages in the food supply system because of variables unrelated to production level. Dando’s work was, however, eclipsed by the development of entitlement theory (famine linked to entitlements) by Sen (1982), who received the Nobel Prize in economics for this work.

Turner then discussed carrying capacity (defined in Box 2-2 ), noting that its antecedents are found in the works of Malthus but modern development and use of the term emerges largely from the ecology of nonhuman biota. He pointed out that the more the environment is manipulated or constructed by people, the more difficult it becomes to apply the concept of carrying capacity because technology and management are important determinants of sustainable production. It is possible that carrying capacity might be applicable at the global level; hypothetically, the Earth system could be treated as a “closed” human-environment system with the single exogenous input of incoming solar radiation. In this view, human appropriation of the world’s net primary productivity (HANPP), 1 which has been estimated to have been between 23-45 percent around the year 2000, serves as a limiting factor (Haberl et al., 2007). Turner stated that beyond such hypotheticals, carrying capacity is useful only as a heu-

__________________

1 Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity (HANPP) is an indicator of the amount and intensity of land use by humans. It is measured as a percentage of total potential vegetation, which in turn is a measure of the incoming solar radiation.

ristic device, and he cautioned against calculating specific measures for it with regard to human-environment systems. He told the workshop that carrying capacity has been largely abandoned as a concept in social and policy sciences.

Turner then turned to the Boserup model, which was initially developed to explain subsistence farmers’ responses to land pressures occasioned by population increases, but it was ultimately expanded to agricultural systems in general. Ester Boserup (1965) explained that the level of agricultural intensification (food production) was not set by some technological maximum but by the level of land pressure confronting farmers. As these land pressures increase, so does intensification, which raises the food ceiling. This process can take place because changes to techno-managerial inputs are considered as coming from within the system, rather than from outside (as in the Malthusian view). This model has been empirically demonstrated in many studies (e.g., Pingali et al., 1987), including production systems that are transitioning from subsistence to commercial farming.

Turner then briefly explained that the Geertz model (Geertz, 1963) is essentially a state of equilibrium; the change in output is equal to the change in input. This is also known as agricultural involution.

Are Malthus and Boserup, and by comparison, the Cassandra and Cornucopian viewpoints that draw on them, irreconcilable? Turner explained that the Boserup model, often considered to be an “anti-Malthusian” thesis, was intended to expand upon themes raised by Malthus while searching for an understanding in which economic growth rather than crises might follow from increases in population. He noted that demographer and economist Ronald D. Lee has demonstrated that Malthus and Boserup could, to a certain extent, be reconciled (Lee, 1986). Using phase-space models, Lee concluded that in Boserup’s model, space is the limiting condition, while Malthusian forces tend to view the system as the limiting condition. Turner and Ali (1996), in turn, have traced how increasing population and other demand factors push population-environment relationships into Boserup-, Geertz-, and Malthus-like conditions, in which the Boserup conditions tend to prevail in most systematic examinations. Understanding agricultural change sufficiently to predict outcomes, however, has proven difficult because human-environment systems operate as complex adaptive systems.

Turner then turned to a comparison of the Cassandra and Cornucopian viewpoints of population and environment as world views linked to Malthus and Boserup. He pointed out that the history of the human species is marked by both increasing the material well-being of humankind and increasing changes and degradation of the environment. The Cassandra view focuses on the consequences for the environment, whereas the

Cornucopian view focuses on human well-being. These foci, and drawing on either Malthus-or Boserup-like arguments, lead to different interpretations of the base relationship in question.

The Cassandra viewpoint (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1988) begins with the notion that the environment is ultimately unable to sustain services provision to humans under conditions of long-term degradation. It is guided by the IPAT equation (identity):

I = P · A· T

in which I = human impact on the environment, P = population, A = affluence, and T = technology. Turner argued that over the long term and at the global scale, resource use and environmental change correlate with the PAT variables more than any others; he said that few people question the use of IPAT as an identity. It is often used to infer causation, however, and this use is hotly debated and criticized as being too superficial, diverting attention from deeper causes of the observed correlations. And, at meso- to micro-spatiotemporal scales, Turner observed, PAT variables commonly do not track well with environmental change.

Turner then explained the Cornucopian view, which holds that increasing population leads to innovation and techno-managerial change, reflected in resource substitution (for example, fiber optics for copper wiring). As a result, over time the access to and production of raw materials increases in efficiency, lowering prices to the benefit of society. Because it is focused on resources and substitutes for them, the Cornucopian view de-emphasizes damages to the environment and emphasizes innovative ways to deal with damages.

Turner went on to discuss “the bet” made in 1980 between Paul Ehrlich and Julian L. Simon (the champions, in the public view, of the Cassandra and Cornucopian viewpoints, respectively) and the subject of the book The Bet (Sabin, 2013), to illustrate divergences in the two views of population and environment. Simon publicly bet that Ehrlich could pick any five minerals and that 10 years later, after considerable population growth worldwide, they would all be cheaper in constant dollars (Cornucopian view) as opposed to more expensive (Cassandra view). Simon won the bet, although subsequent economic analysis showed that had the period of assessment been other than the particular decade 1980 to 1990, Ehrlich would have won the majority of the time. In fact, Turner argued that the bet was a stunt, because market force complexities involve much more than simple demand emanating from population numbers. Simon wagered that over the following 10 years, all indicators of human well-being would increase. Ehrlich, together with eminent climatologist Steve Schneider, countered that all indicators of the state of the environ-

ment would decrease (Sabin, 2013). Turner reasoned that this dichotomy in the new proposed wagers not only illuminated distinctions in the two world views, but also it marked the reshaping of the Cassandra viewpoint to focus less on resource economics and more on the condition of the environment and Earth systems’ capacity to function as the sustainable biosphere that life (including human life) requires.

Turner pointed out that the two world views still persist in population-environment and resource assessments discussions. Cassandra followers treat population as one important factor among others that generate demand on nature; this viewpoint is increasingly observable in such global issues as climate change, loss in biodiversity, and possible planetary boundaries. On the other hand, Cornucopian-like assertions often underpin the positions of, for example, climate change naysayers or advocates of technological capacity to confront climate change through geoengineering. These positions in public debate have become politicized, as documented in The Bet (Sabin, 2013).

Turner ended by saying that emphasis in analysis and discussion on the role given to human population size, food supply, or any other environmental resource or service depends on the world view of the interpreter as much as it does on the actual evidence. Population is embedded within a complex system of factors that includes environmental change, food production, and sustainability. He stated that the world revisits these questions on decade-plus time scales; the questions are never resolved, but each time, new information is added.

EARTH AS A SYSTEM

William Rouse Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair in Economics of Engineering, School of Systems and Enterprises, Stevens Institute of Technology

William Rouse began by explaining that he approaches the sustainability question from an engineering perspective, and he seeks to understand the effect of population on the Earth using systems engineering principles. He said his workshop presentation goals were to better understand the impact of the human population on the Earth and how population interacts with other attributes of the Earth, and he posed four questions to participants:

• How does the Earth respond to population changes? What do we, as researchers, know and still need to learn about its response?
• What can we, as a general population, do to influence the future of the Earth?
• What information can be leveraged from the physical, social, and behavioral sciences communities?
• What should be the research agenda for activities that would have an impact and enhance our ability to understand and act?

Rouse stated that the Earth is a single self-regulating system that exhibits multiscale temporal and spatial variation. 2 He pointed out that human activities are influencing the Earth’s environment in a manner equivalent to the greatest forces of nature. He stated that there are cascading effects throughout the system, and system dynamics are characterized by critical thresholds and abrupt changes. Human activity on Earth may be shifting the Earth system to alternative modes of operation; this shift may be irreversible and may result in a planet less hospitable to humans. The Earth has moved well outside the realm of natural variability when considering environmental factors. Rouse stated that the Earth can even now support more than 10 billion people, but the quality of the lives of those people is a concern. He cited Glaeser (2011), who described how 10 billion people would fit within the state of Texas if the entire state were covered in townhomes. However, Rouse asked what the quality of life would be, and what impact those people would have on Earth.

Rouse explained that the Earth can be considered as a collection of different systems on different scales. (See Figure 2-1 for a schematic.) Loosely speaking, four systems are interconnected: environment, population, industry, and government. In this notional model, population consumes resources from the environment and creates by-products. Industry does the same, but it also produces employment. The government collects taxes and produces rules; the use of the environment is influenced by those rules. Each system component has a different associated time constant. In the case of the environment, the time constant is decades to centuries. The population’s time constant can be as short as a few days. Government’s time constant may be a bit longer, thinking in terms of years. Industry is longer still, on the order of decades. These systems can be represented at different levels of abstraction and/or aggregation, he said, although a hierarchical representation does not capture the fact that this is a highly distributed system, all interconnected. It is difficult to solve any one part of the problem, because it affects other pieces. Rouse pointed out that by-products are related to population size, so one way to reduce by-products is to moderate population growth. Technology may help to ameliorate some of the by-products and their effects, but it is also possible

2 See http://www.colorado.edu/AmStudies/lewis/ecology/gaiadeclar.pdf for more information [April 2014].

FIGURE 2-1 A schematic diagram of the Earth as a system, looking at four primary system components (population, environment, industry, and government). SOURCE: Rouse presentation, slide 12.

that technology could exacerbate the effects. Clean technologies lower byproduct rates but tend to increase overall use, for instance.

Rouse then defined a “system of systems” as a collection of purposeful systems, each one of which is designed to do something different from the overall intent of the collection. The end result of a system of systems is a new, more complex system whose performance can be greater than the sum of the individual constituents. Each constituent system in the collection has its own agenda. In the Earth system, population and government are the sentient parts of the system. The environment, Rouse pointed out, is nonsentient—one cannot influence the environment through persuasion. How, therefore, can the alignment of goals among constituent systems be motivated? Rouse stated that it is important to identify information and incentives so that short-term benefits from lower-level system activities improve the long term and support long-term system goals.

He then pointed out that support for decisions will depend upon the credibility of the predictions of behavior, at all levels in the system. He stressed the importance of shared “space value” and “time value” discount rates: Consequences that are closest in space and time matter the

most, and attributes more distributed in time and space are discounted accordingly. He also pointed out that people will also try to “game” the system. The way to deal with that tendency is to make the system transparent enough to understand the game being played. Sometimes, he said, gaming the system is actually innovation.

Rouse identified three elements that he said are necessary to move forward:

• Information sharing: Broadly sharing credible information helps all stakeholders understand the situation.
• Incentive creation: Development of long-term incentives will enable long-term environmental benefits while maintaining short-term improvements.
• An experiential approach: An interactive visualization of models will enable people to see the results. (Rouse referred to this as a “policy flight simulator.”)

He noted people have difficulty buying into a model until they can take the controls, try options, and see the results (Rouse, 2014).

A participant asked about Rouse’s proposed “policy flight simulator,” asking whether an inventory of models could be shared. Rouse responded that there is an effort to compile such an inventory. Problems arise when the models cannot be audited to see how they work. Those models that are explicitly defined and published in the formal literature are well suited to be part of an inventory, but others cannot be inspected properly and they may not be suitable for inclusion. It is also difficult to develop compatible data representations.

The discussion then turned to tensions between the Cassandra and Cornucopian models. Rouse pointed out that the argument is less about the merits of the two approaches and more about the consequences of agreeing or finding middle ground. Turner agreed that the literature shows far less about the reconciliation of the two positions than their differences. He said that older researchers often developed an initial position in the discussion and now feel compelled to defend their decisions. Younger researchers, on the other hand, have more incentive to explore reconciliation. Turner postulated that Cassandra and Cornucopian supporters would not disagree on the factual basis of operation, as they have the same (reliable) population and growth numbers. The difference is that one group classifies them as a problem, the other as an opportunity.

In a discussion of the IPAT model, a participant pointed to increasing

analytical work that shows statistically significant relationships between environmental and societal factors. However, in the participant’s view, this work may not resonate with social scientists who are more interested in the causes of increases in population, affluence, and technology development. Further, the IPAT model assumes that the population is homogeneous, when in fact consumption and vulnerability vary widely within a population. The participant commented that the picture becomes much richer when considering heterogeneity. For example, populations with greater levels of education are less vulnerable to environmental changes.

Several participants discussed social justice. The conversation began with a discussion of technology adoption. Rouse explained that the adoption of an innovative technology is a highly selective process, and those who embrace a technology or innovation first will experience it very differently from subsequent adopters. He posited that early adopters tend to receive the greatest benefit. While this leads to an aggregate increase in human well-being, ultimately it will also lead to increases in inequality. He suggested that the nature of innovation and its adoption be reconciled, using electricity as an example: Its technology adoption took many decades in the United States and required a huge change in infrastructure to have an impact on the population as a whole. He suggested electricity as an example in which near-term technology benefits those who least need the improvement. Turner then linked this to social justice. He proposed developing a charter vision about social justice and whether it is needed to move forward. Rouse pointed out the possibility that improvements to social justice could have negative environmental consequences.

The discussion also focused on the topic of metrics. A participant said that the world community tends to use gross domestic product (GDP) and life expectancy as indicators of success. A different set of metrics may be able to capture the intent, rather than just measuring the throughput. One person recommended a “gross national happiness” product. Turner pointed out that metrics are critical to the discussion to assess different options, but said he was not certain if a “right” metric exists. Another participant said that it would be important to measure not just current well-being, but also the impact on future well-being to understand how the present may be compromising or improving the future. Turner postulated that it may be important to understand the structure and function of tipping points and planetary boundaries and to have a measure of a tipping point time scale. Robert Hauser (National Research Council) informed the group that a National Research Council committee released a report on measuring well-being, with potentially useful information on metrics (National Research Council, 2013).

The Earth's population, currently 7.2 billion, is expected to rise at a rapid rate over the next 40 years. Current projections state that the Earth will need to support 9.6 billion people by the year 2050, a figure that climbs to nearly 11 billion by the year 2100. At the same time, most people envision a future Earth with a greater average standard of living than we currently have - and, as a result, greater consumption of our planetary resources. How do we prepare our planet for a future population of 10 billion? How can this population growth be achieved in a manner that is sustainable from an economic, social, and environmental perspective?

Can Earth's and Society's Systems Meet the Needs of 10 Billion People? is the summary of a multi-disciplinary workshop convened by the National Academies in October 2013 to explore how to increase the world's population to 10 billion in a sustainable way while simultaneously increasing the well-being and standard of living for that population. This report examines key issues in the science of sustainability that are related to overall human population size, population growth, aging populations, migration toward cities, differential consumption, and land use change, by different subpopulations, as viewed through the lenses of both social and natural science.

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The Origins of Cornucopianism: A Preliminary Genealogy

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Quickonomics

The Cornucopian Theory

The Cornucopian theory of population is a direct contrast to the Malthusian theory . It states that population growth and food supply are not necessarily limited and that resources and technology will continue to increase and provide for the growing population. This theory is based on the idea that human ingenuity, scientific advancements, and technological innovations will always find new and innovative ways to meet the demands of the growing population. In this blog post, we’ll explore the reasoning behind the Cornucopian theory and its criticisms.

Cornucopian Theory Explained

The Cornucopian theory of population is based on the idea that the natural resources and technology that we have at our disposal are unlimited and will continue to grow and develop. This theory states that the food supply will always be sufficient to meet the growing population’s needs and that there will always be enough resources to support the growing population. The Cornucopians believe that, even if the population grows significantly, humans will always be able to find new and innovative ways to produce food and use resources.

The Cornucopian theory emphasizes the role of technology in solving population and resource challenges. For example, they believe that genetic engineering and biotechnology will lead to advances in agriculture and food production, making it possible to feed more people with fewer resources. They also believe that innovations in energy production, such as renewable energy sources, will help to address the energy needs of the growing population.

The Cornucopians believe that technological progress is the key to meeting the needs of the growing population. They argue that, throughout history, humans have always been able to overcome resource constraints through innovation and invention. For example, they point to the Green Revolution, which led to a significant increase in food production in the mid-20th century, as evidence that technology can always provide new solutions to population and resource challenges.

Criticisms of the Cornucopian Theory

Although the Cornucopian Theory has a positive and optimistic outlook on the future, it has received criticism from various sources for several reasons. Some argue that the theory oversimplifies the complex interactions between resources, population, and technology and does not take into account the finite nature of many resources. Others criticize the assumption that technology will always be able to solve resource problems, ignoring the fact that some resources may become depleted or that technological solutions may have negative environmental or social impacts. The majority of the criticisms can be classified as follows:

1) Resource Limits

Critics of the Cornucopian theory argue that there are finite limits to the resources available to us and that, eventually, these resources will become depleted. They point out that, even though technology may increase our ability to extract resources, there is a finite amount of resources available in the earth’s crust, and we will eventually run out of them.

2) Environmental Impact

Another criticism of the Cornucopian theory is its disregard for the environmental impact of increasing population and resource use. Critics argue that increasing resource use and population growth will result in environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity, which will have negative impacts on future generations.

3) Technological Progress

While the Cornucopians view technological progress as the solution to population and resource challenges, some critics argue that technological progress is not always predictable or inevitable. They argue that technological advances can be slow and incremental and that there may be setbacks or failures along the way. They also argue that there are social, political, and economic constraints that can limit technological progress.

In conclusion, the Cornucopian theory provides a much more optimistic outlook on the future of humanity and the world’s resources. While it is important to be mindful of the limited resources available and work to conserve and renew them, the Cornucopian perspective suggests that with technological advancements and market incentives, humanity has the potential to overcome resource limitations and ensure a sustainable future. This perspective highlights the importance of innovation, investment, and growth in the pursuit of greater prosperity.

However, it’s also crucial to consider that there are limits to how much technology and markets can solve problems, especially when it comes to environmental degradation and the depletion of non-renewable resources. Thus, a balanced approach is necessary, taking into account both the positive potential of technological growth and the need for responsible resource management.

Related Posts

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The demographic transition model, the accelerator effect theory.

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Meaning of "Cornucopian thesis" in the English dictionary

Pronunciation of cornucopian thesis, grammatical category of cornucopian thesis, what does cornucopian thesis mean in english, post-scarcity economy, definition of cornucopian thesis in the english dictionary.

The definition of Cornucopian thesis in the dictionary is the idea that so long as science and technology continue to advance, growth can continue for ever because these new advances create new resources.

WORDS THAT RHYME WITH CORNUCOPIAN THESIS

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TRANSLATION OF CORNUCOPIAN THESIS

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10 english books relating to «cornucopian thesis».

The Cornucopian Theory

How was industrialization affected by the industrial revolution.

The Industrial Revolution, which took place from the 18th-19th centuries rural societies in Europe and America became industrial and urban. Before the Industrial Revolution manufacturing was often done in people’s homes, using hand tools or simple machines. Industrialization created a shift to powered machines, factories and mass production. The iron and textile industries, along with the steam engine, played certain roles in the Industrial Revolution, which also saw improved ways of transportation, communication and banking.

Child Labor In The 1800s

Prior to the Industrial Revolution, which began in Britain in the late 1700s, manufacturing was often done in people’s homes, using hand tools or basic machines. Industrialization marked a shift to powered, special-purpose machinery, factories and mass production. The iron and textile industries, along with the development of the steam engine, played central roles in the Industrial Revolution, which also saw improved systems of

Kurt Vonnegut's Argument Essay

In his book, Population Bomb, he argued “through his life that there is an impending doom containing overpopulation and starvation”(Ehrlich 18). Let the facts show that the world has taken the right path toward sustaining life and sending us towards prosperity. In R. Engelman article “Population and Sustainability: Can We Avoid Limiting the Number of People” Engelman’s key argument was that “slowing the rise in human numbers is essential for the planet--but it doesn't require population control”(Engelman 49). Placing a cap on the population will force consequences as

Overpopulation In Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb

In 1960, a man named Paul Ehrlich shared his fears of overpopulation in the world through his book called, “The Population Bomb”. He made many predictions about what kind of disasters we would face if drastic measures were not taken. Zero Population Growth became a political movement that wanted to limit births and give rewards to couples without children. However, humanity has managed to survive even with the current population growth. Paul Ehrlich believes that even though his predictions didn’t happen, it doesn’t mean he was wrong.

Ap Euro Dbq Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution was the chain of events from the mid-1700s to the early 1900s that increased population, product output, and technology. During this period, many inventions that people use to this day, such as the radio, electric lightbulb, and the automobile were invented and put forward for public use. It also changed the way people lived, with urbanization causing more people to move into larger cities to work in factories. While some might argue that Industrialization had primarily negative consequences for society because it brought suffering to the working class, it was actually a positive thing for society.

DBQ Essay: The Green Revolution

[The green revolution during the 20th century was the boom I will culture that was the result of human determination to break out of a food crisis.] The Green Revolution was caused by technological innovations, human want for food, and human want to escape status and class distinctions. Some consequences of his cousins were large economic effects, less hungry and more hard-working poverty, and let's class distinctions. The Green Revolution was caused by new technological innovations that resulted in severe environmental effects.

Industrialization Dbq Essay

The Industrial Revolution was the urbanization of rural areas, and the development of factories and machines. These transformations allowed economic prosperity and brought along tremendous plusses, and were still seeing the success in these up-comings today. “…Industrial Revolution spread to the

Yi 11/13/16 Global Pd 7 Industrial Revolution Essay The Industrial Revolution was a time, 1750 to 1914, where a mass amount of new inventions were created which lead to the dramatic changes. The new inventions made difficult work easier, as machines were able to complete these tasks in few minutes. Societies also became rural and tightly packed as many were moving to these cities in hope of job offerings. In Europe, the Industrial revolution lead to social inequality as new inventions were created demolishing smaller businesses, factories were unfair to their workers and some might say that the industrial revolution brought advancement to society due to the

Industrial Revolution DBQ Essay

The Industrial Revolution implemented numerous opportunities to all. Originally, these uprising of events took place in the late 1700s regarding the country of England. As time passed, the term of commercial enterprise, Industrialization, spread throughout different regions and countries. Eventually these matters promoted higher standards for living conditions, which enacted more efficient exploitations to be taken place in that period of time. Industrialization is the conversion of rural ways, to advanced technicalities in manufacturing and other productive economic activities.

Industrial Revolution Dbq Essay

The Industrial Revolution started in eighteenth century Britain. There were innovative advances in society that led to the faster production of goods. Due to this major advancement, agriculturalists needed to leave their property and urbanize to what became bustling cities. The most plentiful occupation that required workers were the frightening industrial facilities. These horrid factories changed the lives of these farmers compelling them to work over a dozen hours in a day.

Apush Chapter 1 Summary

1. Industrial revolution The Industrial revolution Started in eighteenth Century sixty, the second half of eighteenth Century, the production of capitalism completed the transition from the handicraft industry to the machinery industry. From the revolution makes the machine to replace handicraft labor; the machinery factory to replace the handicraft industry. The industrial revolution has created a huge productivity, and began to urbanize.

The Industrial Revolution, which took place from the 18th to 19th centuries, changed the way countries in Europe functioned. Before this it was a period predominantly agrarian. The industrial revolution led rural societies in Europe to become industrial and urban. Preceding the Industrial Revolution, manufacturing was often done in people’s homes, using hand tools or basic machinery. Industrialization let to a shift to powered machines and advanced tools, factorization.

Education During The Industrial Revolution

Industrial Revolution started in Great Britain and later progressed to the United States between the years 18th and 19th century. The Industrial Revolution marked a great milestone in the world history; various aspects of our day-to-day life were reformed in some way. Humans were transformed from handmade and tools to the assistance of machines. The main purposes for Industrial Revolution happened was peoples want an improvement for their life in order to overcome the hardship during the 18th century. Without the Industrial Revolution, it can be argued that the world today would not have a better standard of living through technology advancements, medication and educations.

The Age Of Reason: The Industrial Revolution In Britain

Cultural changes could be seen everywhere and the politics had a strong influence in the industrial revolution. Before, people lived and worked on farms. Goods were made by hand and animals provided power. During this time, however people left the past behind, and a new middle class was created, consisting of industrialists and businessmen. Workers left their farms and moved to work in the cities.

Advantages Of Logistic Growth Model

In the 21st century, population studies are very significant in looking at characteristics of a country, habitat, community and other environments. For example, in the human population, people are interested in a country’s population growth/decay, as the production of goods, social reforms/support or other needs of the people can be suggested. If a population is decreasing, there can be efforts made to improve medications and social support to increase the population and decrease the death rates. But do we actually know how population is modeled and how accurate these models are? This exploration aims at comparing logistic and exponential growth models, the two main models used for population growth, and to determine the extent of how realistic

More about The Cornucopian Theory

Related topics.

• Economic growth
• Unemployment
• Macroeconomics

Cornucopians - A Guide for the Perplexed

Posted by Dave Cohen on September 2, 2006 - 2:14pm

Cornucopian Fallacies

• The implications of endless growth are understated or rejected out of hand.
• Past economic trends are projected automatically onto the future.
• Evidence that doesn't fit growth scenarios is dismissed.
• There is an extraordinary faith in technology to solve all problems.

... predicted that "in the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death", that nothing can be done to avoid mass famine greater than any in the history, and radical action is needed to limit the overpopulation.

PFC Energy—The Radical Middle

Well, what we have here, in many ways, is a number of cyclical and structural issues which have brought us $50 oil. It's true that we're running at very high capacity. Right now we're producing at 98 percent. It means that we have very little spare capacity. We've rarely had that phenomenon. And in term of this issue of peak oil, if you look at the current conditions, and if you trend them up for the next 10, 15 years, you see that, you know, with the present technology and the present access to resources, it's difficult to imagine that we're going to be able to produce a lot more than 100, 105 million barrel per day, which probably could be around 2015. So we're entering that era, if we don't have two dramatic changes. One is technology, both on supply and demand, and second one is access to the reserve which do exist in the Middle East.

A Cornucopian Taxonomy

• Abiotic Oil Enthusiasts
• True Pollyannas
• Blinkered Economists

Corsi said the [Rigzone] incident, along with many ad hominem attacks he and co-author Craig R. Smith have received, illustrate the general unwillingness of opponents to address the book's arguments. "They don't want to debate us, they want to shut it out," Corsi said. He added, "It's usually a good indication you're on to something."

The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not new or recent. This theory was first enunciated by Professor Nikolai Kudryavtsev in 1951, almost a half century ago, (Kudryavtsev 1951) and has undergone extensive development, refinement, and application since its introduction. There have been more than four thousand articles published in the Soviet scientific journals, and many books, dealing with the modern theory. This writer is presently co-authoring a book upon the subject of the development and applications of the modern theory of petroleum for which the bibliography requires more than thirty pages.

... will the ever-improving technological efficiencies of the free market provide access to virtually endless sources of new energy? Peter Robinson : Heresy--now this is a big one by the way, take a deep breath. "The raw fuels are not running out." Now here you [Huber] seem, if I as a layman may say so, to have taken leave of your senses. Everybody knows that oil, coal, natural gas, all exist in fixed amounts, therefore, the more we use, the less remains. Peter Huber : Fixed amount is a very elastic term. We have centuries' worth of coal in this country.... we could burn coal for a century. We can make unlimited amounts of electricity with coal if we want to. We have tar sands in Canada and in South America that have a century's worth of oil locked up in tar. The issue isn't whether the planet itself is very limited in buried hydrocarbons. It clearly is not. The issue is do we want to get them out? Do we have the technologies to get them out? At what price can we get them out and what are the environmental impacts of doing so?

• Is the project doable? Does the necessary technology exist?
• Is the marginal energy return (EROEI) significantly greater than zero?
• Are the environmental impacts acceptable? Are the mitigation costs manageable?
• Does the project scale up? Are anticipated marginal costs favorable?
• Do the projected annual return rates (ROR) or return on investment (ROI) justify the project?

These conclusions [about the catastrophic end of industrial civilization] are based on interpretations that lack any nuanced understanding of the human quest for energy, disregard the role of prices, ignore any historical perspectives, and presuppose the end of human inventiveness and adaptability. I will raise just three key points aimed at dismantling the foundations of this new catastrophist cult. First, these preachings are just the latest installments in a long history of failed peak forecasts. Second, the peak-oil advocates argue that this time the circumstances are really different and that their forecasts will not fail--but in order to believe that, one has to ignore a multitude of facts and possibilities that readily counteract their claims. Third, and most importantly, there is no reason why even an early peak of global oil production should trigger any catastrophic events.

This feat led the peak-oil groupies to consider Hubbert's Gaussian exhaustion curve with the reverence reserved by the Biblical fundamentalists to Genesis. In reality, it is a simplistic "geology-only" model based on rigidly predetermined reserves and ignoring any innovative advances or price shifts.

Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields, so will be able to pump at the present rate for about 70 years even if it never discovers another drop of oil. In fact, Aramco and other NOCs are likely to find plenty more if they look, since their territory has not been very thoroughly explored. Only 2,000 wildcat wells have ever been dug in the countries around the Gulf, according to Leonardo Maugeri, an Italian oilman, compared with more than 1m wells in the United States.

What most of these doomsday scenarios have gotten wrong is the fundamental idea of economics: people respond to incentives. If the price of a good goes up, people demand less of it, the companies that make it figure out how to make more of it, and everyone tries to figure out how to produce substitutes for it. Add to that the march of technological innovation (like the green revolution, birth control, etc.). The end result: markets figure out how to deal with problems of supply and demand.

I don't know much about world oil reserves. I'm not even necessarily arguing with their facts about how much the output from existing oil fields is going to decline, or that world demand for oil is increasing.

Social Role of the Cornucopian

It's much easier to tell people what they want to hear than to tell them what they need to hear. This is the first and most important advantage a cornucopian thinker has when arguing before any audience. No one really wants to hear that the future may be filled with turbulent change and personal insecurity.

Garrett Hardin addressed [Julian Simon's] claim in his book The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia . He noted that when Albert Bartlett, a retired physicist of the University of Colorado, tried to test Simon's statement on a desk calculator, it flashed "Error", indicating that, multiplying steadily at 1 % per year for 7 billion years, the population would soon surpass his calculator's limit of 9.99×1099. Bartlett's calculation assumed exponential population growth, with the population doubling every 43 years.

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142 comments.

Mad Max oil wars are one future possibility; a total turn away from hydrocarbon based industry into a neo-Puritan (or fundamentalist Islamic) Dark Age where oil is irrelevant is another.  We can't even assign probablilities to these things -- there is no science that allows such calculation.

I think a lot has happened, though the rise in energy prices has been quite smooth. The loss of natural gas from Katrina led to fertilizer shortages in Pakistan the following Spring. Malaysia had a diesel shortage last year. So did (and does) South Africa.

It is the weakest countries and the countries with the worst governments and the countries with price controls who will hurt first. A quick visit to Google News today shows:

Food Shortage in Nepal

There is an acute food shortage in upper Mustang as the stock of food grains in the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) depot there has been depleted," Chief District Officer (CDO) of Mustang, Pradeep Raj Kandel, told this daily over telephone.

Southern Africa faces food shortage: Angolan official

Director of the Agrarian Development Institute (IDA) of Angola, Afonso Canga, has said that the southern region of the continent is going through hard times, particularly in the field of food production, it is reported on Thursday.

Fuel prices a threat to traders

A STEADY supply of food in Kampala's [Uganda] major markets has continued despite a fear that rains and unpredictable fuel prices may hamper the supply, a weekly survey has shown.

Drought, poppy profits cause wheat shortage

KABUL: Millions of Afghans are facing hunger because of a food shortage that the government and aid agencies say is because of a prolonged dry spell in the country.

SA faces new fuel shortage crisis

The Moerane Commission into last year's fuel supply crisis has reported that another crisis could emerge in the second half of this year because of scheduled refinery shutdowns.

Baghdad: At gas stations around Baghdad, the line of cars waiting to fill their tanks with increasingly rare petrol now reaches 60 to 80 vehicles. Some prefer to spend the night in their vehicles on streets to maintain their turn in the long line. The nationwide fuel shortage is so severe that 20 litres now cost about $20 (Dh73.56).

Manipur faces fuel shortage

IMPHAL: As a result of the extortion notice issued by the NSCN (IM) demanding Rs. 50 lakh from the Assam Oil Division of the Indian Oil Corporation, petrol tankers have been unable to ply for over 16 days along the two National Highways. Unable to ferry petrol and diesel from Khatkati in Assam, almost all petrol pumps in and around Imphal went dry from Saturday morning while some others still continue to sell diesel.

Aman cultivation may face setback for want of irrigation

NAOGAON, Aug 17 (UNB): Transplanted aman cultivation may face a setback in the district this season for want of proper irrigation. Farmers said they were forced to install pumps to irrigate their already dried up cropland due to inadequate rainfall during the monsoon. The farmers in the district installed 24,000 irrigation pumps. Of these, 1,380 are deep tube-wells. But, the pumps could not be operated smoothly because of diesel shortage, they added.

High Prices For Diesel Gas Affecting Lubbock Farmers, Truck Drivers "If we break even, it will be a miracle," he says. "It's just frustrating, because it used to be the other way around. Diesel was cheaper than gas. Must be a shortage of diesel. That's why the price is staying up."

Robin's daring cornucopian idea is this: that the future will continue the trends of the past. I know, I know, it sounds crazy, it sounds insane; who could ever imagine that the future will be like the past?

But what if that's not true? What if we are not unique and are not special? What if the trends of the past do continue, and our challenges are no different from the equally unique-seeming and special-seeming challenges of the past?

Once a technology reaches a certain point, most further advances are more along the lines of optimizing existing designs rather than creating true breakthroughs.

Tainter - diminishing returns. Was it him or someone else that went beyond that to point of saying certain fields are more or less *known*?

cfm in Gray, ME

That's a bizarre concept, that we keep accelerating. Idea Futures Market. I've been doing a bit of digging into "neoliberalism" and so forth. I hope there is more to this than hyperneoliberalism.

How many people read that article, I can't reach the server. Or did we slashdot it because SO MANY of us read it??? I googled for the article too, looking for it elsewhere, and got all sorts of stuff on "singularities". Does anyone have a link to it elsewhere?

In one sense, of course the future continues the past. Imagine yourself 200 years from now looking back. Doh.

But singularity, discontinuity. Gail the Actuary, do you feel comfortable that you have factored that in? How do actuaries deal with the unknown? Someone wrote that oil is only a little bit of pharma. I don't know...oil runs the grid. What would our medical delivery system look like without the grid? Those Cuban doctors with two 100 pound backpacks - one for themselves and one of supplies? But why will they come here when the whole world needs them? What will the patent system look like without TRIPS when little states - let alone Nigeria - start to declare force majeure and assert their own sovereignty? Someone posted a couple of articles recently about how a couple of degrees changes plant respiration 100%. A crash is not linear though a powerdown could be. Hari Seldon could not predict this, except in general outline of course.

I tend to put my effort into what a reasonable powered down and relocalized community might look like (say John Howe's version - 20 mile radius, about 15% of current fossil fuel) and try to figure out what needs to be done to get there. Taking a REALLY long view, we are going to get there if we are lucky. It's only a matter of how.

One of America's silliest pollyannas, Tom Friedman :

• The Greenie : Who looks at peak oil as a way of forcing everyone to grow their own organic carrots.
• The Technophobe : Who seeks a world somewhere around 1800 and believes peak oil will do away with all those nasty computers and machines.
• The Chicken Little : Who's moved from Y2K, to peak oil via bird flu.
• The Never Never : The pessimist that seeks one tiny problem with an alternative technology as a reason why the whole thing will never work, shouldn't be considered, stick fingers in the ears the hum "la la la, I'm not listening".
• The Survivalist : Who loves his guns and is looking forward to the opportunity to protect his homestead from the Mad Max hoards.
• The Statistician : Who takes one version of a technology process, a few handwaving numbers and says "the EROEI is 0.823 so the whole technology is bunk". In a past life he was happy to prove a bee could never fly and spent many a happy hour swatting those bees that didn't listen.

It's not the case that historical arguments relying upon faith in economics or technology are completely wrong. Far from it. The point is that Cornucopians take these arguments to an irrational extreme, ignoring pertinent realities about limits. This is an important point.

Also, the D&G view is not nearly as dangerous as that of the Pollyannas who say there's no problem.

As I will report, my search of the book of history and my projections for the 21st century based on the historical patterns I find suggest that many of the usual specters of shortage and fallout are phantoms. Instead, I see a society learning to use resources efficiently and cleanly. Keys described along the way include market substitution, precision agriculture, dematerialization, decarbonization, and industrial ecology. Unfortunately, I will not leave you, the reader, without worries. But, I hope to shift attention from the spell-binding phantoms to real stresses that we should sweat to relieve. Let us not exhaust ourselves chasing phantoms, when the race before us is anyway long and hard.

After weak prices in the 1990s due to oversupply, natural gas production in North America will probably continue to decline unless there is another big discovery, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s chief executive said on Tuesday. "Gas production has peaked in North America," Chief Executive Lee Raymond told reporters at the Reuters Energy Summit. Asked whether production would continue to decline even if two huge arctic gas pipeline projects were built, Raymond said, "I think that's a fair statement, unless there's some huge find that nobody has any idea where it would be."

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The Cornucopian Text: Problems of Writing in the French Renaissance

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In the 16th century, Latin theorists and French vernacular writers shared a common preoccupation with problems of writing, its nature, and status. The focus of this book is the interaction of Erasmian theory and the literary practice of Rabelais, Ronsard, and Montaigne: writers who examined problems of writing sometimes literally and explicitly, but also through a group of figures — sexual, alimentary, economic — of which the central emblem is the cornucopia.

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What is the focus of Cornucopian theory?

Table of Contents

Cornucopian theory scoffs at the idea of humans wiping themselves out; it asserts that human ingenuity can resolve any environmental or social issues that develop. As an example, it points to the issue of food supply.

Who disagreed with the Malthusian theory?

Vladimir Lenin Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the Bolshevik Party and the main architect of the Soviet Union was a critic of Neo-Malthusian theory (but not of birth control and abortion in general).

What is the Malthus trap?

The Malthusian Trap, also known as the Malthusian Population Trap, refers to the idea that increased food production as a result of advanced agricultural techniques creates higher population levels.

Why is the cornucopian theory important?

Cornucopians hold an anthropocentric view of the environment and reject the ideas that population-growth projections are problematic and that Earth has finite resources and carrying capacity (the number of individuals an environment can support without detrimental impacts). Cornucopian thinkers tend to be libertarians.

What is cornucopian thesis?

Cornucopian thesis in British English (ˌkɔːnjʊˈkəʊpɪən ˈθiːsɪs ) economics. the belief that, as long as science and technology continue to advance, growth can continue for ever because these new advances create new resources.

What are the main principles of Malthusian theory of population?

Malthus specifically stated that the human population increases geometrically, while food production increases arithmetically. Under this paradigm, humans would eventually be unable to produce enough food to sustain themselves. This theory was criticized by economists and ultimately disproved.

What are the events that proved Malthusian theory wrong?

EVENT THAT PROVED MALTHUS THEORY WRONG The discoveries of new world that provided new settlement. The industrial revolution that occured in Europe led to the production of endless articles for people consumption. medical improvement helped ton prolong human lives and render positive checks of population untenable.

What are the main beliefs of cornucopian world view?

Who made cornucopian theory?

Population. A cornerstone argument of the cornucopian position is a denial of English economist Thomas Malthus’s assertion that human population growth will always tend to outrun the supply of food and natural resources. The Malthusian position led Paul Ehrlich to call for population control in the 1960s and ’70s.

Is Malthusian theory of population still relevant today?

In modern times, Malthus’s population theory has been criticized. Although the theory of Malthus proved somewhat true in contemporary terms, this doctrine is not acceptable at present.

How do you break a Malthusian trap?

The Industrial Revolution, the first escape from the Malthusian trap, occurred when the efficiency of production at last accelerated, growing fast enough to outpace population growth and allow average incomes to rise.

What does cornucopian theory believe quizlet?

What does cornucopian theory believe? That human ingenuity will solve any issues that overpopulation creates.

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Welcome to Cornucopia

Cornucopia Magazine

Published twice a year, Cornucopia is the magazine for connoisseurs of Turkey. Now celebrating its 30th anniversary, this independent publication – gorgeous enough for the coffee table, serious enough to be found in academic libraries – is an ever-growing compendium of all things Turkish: history, culture, art, food, travel. The arbiter of taste Tyler Brûlé has called Cornucopia in the FT ‘a cross between The World of Interiors and National Geographic , with a gentle Turkic twist’. For The New York Review of Magazines , ‘It’s a truism that the measure of a travel magazine’s success is whether it makes you yearn to visit the destinations it depicts. Cornucopia goes one better. It is a vacation in itself.’ For the blog Quintessence , ‘ Cornucopia is indeed an apt name for this publication of plenty, overflowing with Turkish beauty, inspiration and edification.’

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Select from the Cornucopia Hotel Collection , and book yourself into the best hotels at the best prices. In What’s On we navigate Istanbul’s phenomenal arts scene as well as Turkey-related happenings worldwide, and our Travel pages explore the places and people behind the stories in Cornucopia.

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Winged victory

From issue 65.

The birds are flocking back to İzmir’s Gediz Delta

Age of innocence

From issue 63.

The astrophotographer Tony Hallas spent an idyllic childhood in 1950s Turkey, where he first marvelled at the night sky. On his recent return, he found hulking cruise ships and Disneyfied destinations. Here, in the first of two articles, he looks back at the Turkey he left behind, and evocative family photographs capture a world waiting to be discovered

The Modest Medlar

From issue 60.

Once ubiquitous and widely valued for its medicinal powers, the medlar has been neglected for more than a century as it calls for patience and cannot be mass-marketed. So take advantage of this ambrosial amber-coloured fruit wherever you find it – in street markets, in country gardens or in the wild. Text and photographs: Berrin Torolsan

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